AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Ph.D DISSERTATION : THREE ESSAYS ON EVIDENCE-BASED APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT
Chapter 1: Long Term Consequences of Early Life Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Nepal
Early life extrauterine environment has important implications for development of in- fants into adulthood, especially in rural, rainfed subsistence agricultural settings, where rainfall shocks are one of the most important risk factors. This paper studies the persis- tent and heterogenous impact of early-life weather conditions on future socioeconomic outcomes of youths and adults in rural Nepal. Controlling for birth district and birth year fixed effects, and district-specific linear time trends, I find that higher birth-year rainfall leads to improved schooling and literacy status for Nepalese females. This positive relationship holds even when accounting for the effects of rainfall in the years before and after the birth. For both males and females, top quintile of absolute level of rainfall is statistically significantly associated with higher schooling relative to the bottom quintile. Furthermore, there is some evidence to suggest that higher birth year monsoon rainfall is associated with foregone education and more work for adults from marginalized backgrounds but with increased years of education and fewer months of work for those from non-marginalized backgrounds. These results have important pol- icy implications in favor of agricultural insurance and safety net programs, the likely benefits of which should be seriously considered when structuring antipoverty inter- ventions targeted, in particular, for females and individuals from marginalized back- grounds.
Chapter 2: Effects of Educational Decentralization on Participation and Quality : A Case Study Of Nepal
Decentralization has been increasingly adopted in education systems across developing countries but with limited consensus in the literature. This paper empirically analyzes the heterogeneous effects of decentralization on educational participation and qual- ity. I perform this analysis in Nepal, where the Ministry of Education introduced and gradually expanded in phases the Basic and Primary Education Programs (BPEP) (1992 to 2003) as a policy response to the global declaration of Education for All ini- tiative. Throughout the period of the BPEP, primary education in program districts were locally administered and that in non-program districts were centrally managed. I use this exogenous variation in the jurisdiction of school administration as a result of these policy intervention to identify the causal effect of decentralization, applying the matched difference-in-difference approach to address the possible selection bias prob- lem. The main empirical findings suggest that, on average, years taken to complete primary school declined by 1.3 years more for children in participating districts relative to those in non-participating districts. There is some evidence that decentralization boosted primary school enrollment for males. The impact of decentralization is pro- gressive, as the magnitude of change in enrollment and years taken to complete primary education is largest for the poorest households in participating districts. The increase in primary enrollment in these districts is greater, on average, for children belonging to households of non-marginalized castes, and households that have easy access to pri- mary schools and bus stops. This result should encourage governments to consider decentralization as a feasible policy solution to providing quality public education al- though it is critical to determine the administrative and/or sociocultural bottlenecks that prevent female children from benefiting.
Chapter 3: IMF/IDA-supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low and Middle-Income Countries
Economic vulnerability among less developed countries in the past few years has in- creased the role of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to strengthen policy buffers and revitalize development and sustainable growth. This paper focuses on the issue of whether IMF concessional programs and World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA)-supported investments accelerate conditional income convergence among eligible low and middle-income countries (LMICs). For the pur- poses of this paper, I use an unbalanced panel data for 140 LMICs over the 1967- 2016 period. I consider only and all IMF concessional facilities and IDA investment loans available to eligible countries. I employ two different econometric methods to address the selection bias problem; Endogenous Treatment Effects (ETE) and Propen- sity Score Matched Treatment Fixed Effects (MFE). The main empirical findings sug- gest that real GDP per capita in LMICs with extended simultaneous participation in IMF/IDA-supported programs (with more than five years in a decade) grew statisti- cally significantly faster (by 3.2 percentage points, on average) than that in countries that participated intermittently or in countries that did not request support. When considering the programs independently, extended participation in IMF-supported pro- grams (IDA-investments) is, on average, associated with approximately 4.4 percentage points lower (3.18 percentage points higher) growth rate of real GDP per capita. More importantly, IMF-supported programs accelerated conditional income convergence exclusively among MICs during the sample period. Further investigation is needed to identify specific channels through which the IMF and the World Bank programs work to support income convergence.
EXPERTISE
Advanced Econometric Methods
Micro-econometrics
Time Series Analysis
Development Finance & Banking
Development Macroeconomics
Development Microeconomics
AWARDS
2019 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
2018 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
2017 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
Chapter 1: Long Term Consequences of Early Life Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Nepal
Early life extrauterine environment has important implications for development of in- fants into adulthood, especially in rural, rainfed subsistence agricultural settings, where rainfall shocks are one of the most important risk factors. This paper studies the persis- tent and heterogenous impact of early-life weather conditions on future socioeconomic outcomes of youths and adults in rural Nepal. Controlling for birth district and birth year fixed effects, and district-specific linear time trends, I find that higher birth-year rainfall leads to improved schooling and literacy status for Nepalese females. This positive relationship holds even when accounting for the effects of rainfall in the years before and after the birth. For both males and females, top quintile of absolute level of rainfall is statistically significantly associated with higher schooling relative to the bottom quintile. Furthermore, there is some evidence to suggest that higher birth year monsoon rainfall is associated with foregone education and more work for adults from marginalized backgrounds but with increased years of education and fewer months of work for those from non-marginalized backgrounds. These results have important pol- icy implications in favor of agricultural insurance and safety net programs, the likely benefits of which should be seriously considered when structuring antipoverty inter- ventions targeted, in particular, for females and individuals from marginalized back- grounds.
Chapter 2: Effects of Educational Decentralization on Participation and Quality : A Case Study Of Nepal
Decentralization has been increasingly adopted in education systems across developing countries but with limited consensus in the literature. This paper empirically analyzes the heterogeneous effects of decentralization on educational participation and qual- ity. I perform this analysis in Nepal, where the Ministry of Education introduced and gradually expanded in phases the Basic and Primary Education Programs (BPEP) (1992 to 2003) as a policy response to the global declaration of Education for All ini- tiative. Throughout the period of the BPEP, primary education in program districts were locally administered and that in non-program districts were centrally managed. I use this exogenous variation in the jurisdiction of school administration as a result of these policy intervention to identify the causal effect of decentralization, applying the matched difference-in-difference approach to address the possible selection bias prob- lem. The main empirical findings suggest that, on average, years taken to complete primary school declined by 1.3 years more for children in participating districts relative to those in non-participating districts. There is some evidence that decentralization boosted primary school enrollment for males. The impact of decentralization is pro- gressive, as the magnitude of change in enrollment and years taken to complete primary education is largest for the poorest households in participating districts. The increase in primary enrollment in these districts is greater, on average, for children belonging to households of non-marginalized castes, and households that have easy access to pri- mary schools and bus stops. This result should encourage governments to consider decentralization as a feasible policy solution to providing quality public education al- though it is critical to determine the administrative and/or sociocultural bottlenecks that prevent female children from benefiting.
Chapter 3: IMF/IDA-supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low and Middle-Income Countries
Economic vulnerability among less developed countries in the past few years has in- creased the role of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to strengthen policy buffers and revitalize development and sustainable growth. This paper focuses on the issue of whether IMF concessional programs and World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA)-supported investments accelerate conditional income convergence among eligible low and middle-income countries (LMICs). For the pur- poses of this paper, I use an unbalanced panel data for 140 LMICs over the 1967- 2016 period. I consider only and all IMF concessional facilities and IDA investment loans available to eligible countries. I employ two different econometric methods to address the selection bias problem; Endogenous Treatment Effects (ETE) and Propen- sity Score Matched Treatment Fixed Effects (MFE). The main empirical findings sug- gest that real GDP per capita in LMICs with extended simultaneous participation in IMF/IDA-supported programs (with more than five years in a decade) grew statisti- cally significantly faster (by 3.2 percentage points, on average) than that in countries that participated intermittently or in countries that did not request support. When considering the programs independently, extended participation in IMF-supported pro- grams (IDA-investments) is, on average, associated with approximately 4.4 percentage points lower (3.18 percentage points higher) growth rate of real GDP per capita. More importantly, IMF-supported programs accelerated conditional income convergence exclusively among MICs during the sample period. Further investigation is needed to identify specific channels through which the IMF and the World Bank programs work to support income convergence.
EXPERTISE
Advanced Econometric Methods
Micro-econometrics
Time Series Analysis
Development Finance & Banking
Development Macroeconomics
Development Microeconomics
AWARDS
2019 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
2018 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
2017 Award for Excellence in Econometrics for "Best Paper in Applied Economic Research"
UMASS AMHERST
GRADUATE HONORS THESIS: HUMAN CAPITAL AND SUBJECTIVE-OBJECTIVE POVERTY: A MICRO CASE STUDY OF NEPAL
Chapter 1: Measuring Poverty in Nepal Using Qualitative Assessments of Consumption Adequacy to Derive Household-Specific Subjective-Objective Poverty Line
This thesis derives an alternative subjective-objective poverty line (SPL) using self-reported qualitative assessments of perceived adequacy for different categories of consumption namely, food, housing and clothing. Modeling the probability of reporting that actual consumption in each category is adequate, I find that actual measures of consumption are highly significant predictors of perceived consumption adequacy. The perceived adequacy for different consumption components respond more elastically to spending on the corresponding category of goods than to that on other types. The results suggest that the implied subjective poverty lines and regional profiles are different from those predicted by popular objective methods.
Chapter 2: The Role of Human Capital and Alleviation of Household Poverty in Nepal
This paper estimates the effects of human capital, employment and basic facilities on household poverty status in Nepal. Delving into this topic seems very policy relevant for the country, where there is a huge need of public education and unemployment insurance programs. To investigate this causal relationship, I use the Living Standards Measurement Survey Data for the year 2010/11, which includes information on past and present educational attainment, current employment, and availability and status of infrastructure in different communities of the country. I find that higher educational attainment, employment and improved perceived status of public amenities contribute to higher subjective wellbeing and reduced likelihood of poverty, controlling for value of assets owned, socio-demographic attributes and geographic location.
EXPERTISE
Advance Econometrics
Advance Microeconomics
Applied Econometrics
Panel Data Econometrics
Time Series and Forecasting
Chapter 1: Measuring Poverty in Nepal Using Qualitative Assessments of Consumption Adequacy to Derive Household-Specific Subjective-Objective Poverty Line
This thesis derives an alternative subjective-objective poverty line (SPL) using self-reported qualitative assessments of perceived adequacy for different categories of consumption namely, food, housing and clothing. Modeling the probability of reporting that actual consumption in each category is adequate, I find that actual measures of consumption are highly significant predictors of perceived consumption adequacy. The perceived adequacy for different consumption components respond more elastically to spending on the corresponding category of goods than to that on other types. The results suggest that the implied subjective poverty lines and regional profiles are different from those predicted by popular objective methods.
Chapter 2: The Role of Human Capital and Alleviation of Household Poverty in Nepal
This paper estimates the effects of human capital, employment and basic facilities on household poverty status in Nepal. Delving into this topic seems very policy relevant for the country, where there is a huge need of public education and unemployment insurance programs. To investigate this causal relationship, I use the Living Standards Measurement Survey Data for the year 2010/11, which includes information on past and present educational attainment, current employment, and availability and status of infrastructure in different communities of the country. I find that higher educational attainment, employment and improved perceived status of public amenities contribute to higher subjective wellbeing and reduced likelihood of poverty, controlling for value of assets owned, socio-demographic attributes and geographic location.
EXPERTISE
Advance Econometrics
Advance Microeconomics
Applied Econometrics
Panel Data Econometrics
Time Series and Forecasting
WILLIAMS COLLEGE
UNDERGRADUATE HONORS THESIS : LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF LOCAL BIRTH YEAR RAINFALL
Epidemiological literature suggests that in utero and extrauterine environment has important implications for development of infants into adulthood. To test this hypothesis, this paper studies the persistent impact of early-life weather conditions on adult socioeconomic outcomes. I find that rainfall shocks in and around the year of birth have not only exposed children in Nepal to poor nutrition, but also have reduced their future productivity and earnings from education. This has important policy implications regarding targeted agricultural insurance and safety net programs.
COURSES
Public Finance
Computational General Equilibrium
Urban Economics
Linear Algebra
Abstract Algebra
Investment Mathematics
AWARDS
2013 Jack Larned International Management Prize for exhibiting “technical excellence in economics, and the inquisitive mind and motivation of a true scholar” and for proposing an independent full-year honors thesis that shows “unusual promise”
2012 Carl Van Duyne Prize in Economics for “a senior thesis of superior quality dealing with the management of development in governments and private or public enterprises in African, Asian, or Latin American countries”
Epidemiological literature suggests that in utero and extrauterine environment has important implications for development of infants into adulthood. To test this hypothesis, this paper studies the persistent impact of early-life weather conditions on adult socioeconomic outcomes. I find that rainfall shocks in and around the year of birth have not only exposed children in Nepal to poor nutrition, but also have reduced their future productivity and earnings from education. This has important policy implications regarding targeted agricultural insurance and safety net programs.
COURSES
Public Finance
Computational General Equilibrium
Urban Economics
Linear Algebra
Abstract Algebra
Investment Mathematics
AWARDS
2013 Jack Larned International Management Prize for exhibiting “technical excellence in economics, and the inquisitive mind and motivation of a true scholar” and for proposing an independent full-year honors thesis that shows “unusual promise”
2012 Carl Van Duyne Prize in Economics for “a senior thesis of superior quality dealing with the management of development in governments and private or public enterprises in African, Asian, or Latin American countries”
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
COURSES
Public Economics
Development Economics
Game Theory
Real Analysis
